David Clementson publishes Midterm Election Curse research
David Clementson publishes Midterm Election Curse research
Results from a new UGA study suggest some voters are more likely to support GOP candidates who admit President Trump has erred and broken campaign promises. Self-identified Democratic voters say they are more inclined to support Republicans for Congress in November if GOP candidates seek forgiveness on issues including the Epstein files, immigration enforcement, global military conflicts, and economic inflation; Republican voters are more likely to support candidates who defend the President and tout his achievement.
The conventional wisdom in politics is that when Americans are pessimistic about the direction of the country, candidates for U.S. Congress from a sitting President’s party will pay the price in midterm elections.
With some election forecasts showing concerning signs for Republicans, as well as an “enthusiasm advantage” that could boost turnout for Democratic candidates, congressional Republican are at risk of losing their majority after the November elections.
Despite that, there is a silver lining for GOP congressional candidates seeking election and continued Republican control of Congress: The power of forgiveness.
New research by University of Georgia professor David E. Clementson indicates that Democratic voters say they are more likely to support Republicans running for Congress who apologize because President Donald J. Trump hasn’t fulfilled some key campaign promises. In contrast, when it comes to Republican voters, the research shows that they are significantly more inclined to vote for GOP candidates who encourage people to trust President Trump and pivot to messaging that emphasizes his success rather than any shortcomings.
“Based on the data, Republican congressional candidates in Georgia do not need to completely throw Trump under the bus, nor stubbornly support Trump and try to distract voters from his inadequacies,” said Clementson, an associate professor of public relations and political communication. “Ironically, Republicans can make headway with Democrats by asking for forgiveness because Trump has not fulfilled his popular presidential campaign promises.”
The study found that Democratic voters are significantly more inclined to “absolutely vote for” a Republican congressional candidate, tell their friends and family to vote for that way, and have positive attitudes toward that candidate, if they apologize because President Trump hasn’t kept campaign promises and pledge to do better. Republicans, in turn, say they are significantly more inclined to vote for a candidate, donate money to their campaign, tell friends and family to support them, and hold the candidate in higher esteem if that official tells voters to trust President Trump and emphasizes his victories rather than acknowledging any shortcomings.
“President Trump’s ‘America First’ appeal to voters in 2024 included commitments to release the Epstein files, improve the economy, and avoid continued engagement in foreign wars that cost American lives and taxpayer dollars,” Clementson added. “As frustration mounts in the electorate over what is perceived as insufficient progress on those issues, the data shows that even Democratic voters seem more inclined to reward Republican candidates who express disappointment in Trump not fulfilling his mandates. Even with Trump’s popularity plunging, his congressional supporters ironically may have a better chance of maintaining a GOP majority if their messaging in some way acknowledges the President’s shortcoming without disavowing him. The results of this study provide insights to candidates of both parties about potential tailored messaging appeals that may resonate with partisan voters across the political spectrum during the general election campaign.”
The experiment on which the study results are based tested potential campaign messaging for Congressman Mike Collins and Congressman Earl “Buddy” Carter (the major Republicans challenging Sen. Jon Ossoff) as well as generic Republicans running for the U.S. Senate.
In the experimental stimulus, one tactic tested was for Republican congressional candidates to tell voters to keep trusting Trump and making excuses for him and changing the subject from Trump’s shortcomings. The other experimental stimulus was for congressional candidates to tell voters that they are sorry Trump has not kept his promises and ask for forgiveness and try to do better.
“It is often the case in midterm elections that congressional candidates in the majority who are members of the party of the President have one of two options: stand by an unpopular President and risk election defeat or distance themselves from the party standard bearer, which may still result in an election loss,” Clementson said. “The results of this study suggest there may be a middle ground third option: Apologize for their unpopular President’s inadequacies, ask for forgiveness for not keeping campaign promises, and promise to try to do better.”
The study results are based on data gathered from 172 UGA adult students who are registered to vote in Georgia and are likely voters. About half (50.9%) identified as Republicans and the others as Democrats. The vast majority (74.6%) identified as female and 24.3% as male. And the vast majority (76.9%) are from Georgia while 22.5% are not originally from Georgia. View the experimental design messaging here. View the statistical summary results here.
Editor: Sarah Freeman, freemans@uga.edu